Sunrun vs ADT Solar: I Signed ADT Solar 6 Weeks Before They Exited — Here's the TCO Framework I Should Have Used

Why I'm Comparing Sunrun and ADT Solar (and the $11,400 That Made Me Write This)

I've been handling solar procurement for three properties in Central Florida — roughly 38,000 square feet total — for just over four years. I've personally made and documented three significant mistakes, totaling approximately $11,400 in wasted budget. Now I maintain our team's checklist to prevent others from repeating my errors.

In late 2023, I needed to decide between Sunrun and ADT Solar for my Orlando property. I signed with ADT on November 3rd. On January 24th, 2024, ADT announced they were exiting the residential solar business entirely.

So glad I hadn't sold the other property yet. Almost wired a $22,800 deposit to a company that was about to stop installing residential systems. That near-miss cost me 14 weeks of timeline, not $22K. Dodged a bullet — barely.

This is not a "Sunrun good, ADT bad" piece. ADT isn't even an option for new residential solar anymore. But the comparison framework still matters — because the same type of decision is happening across every solar market right now, and most homeowners are evaluating it the wrong way.

The three mistakes I'm drawing from:

1. March 2021: Compared only dollars-per-watt and missed $4,800 in balance-of-system equipment mismatch costs.
2. September 2022: Undersized battery storage by ~40% based on average utility bills. $2,800 upgrade eight months later.
3. November 2023: Signed an ADT Solar contract without negotiating an exit clause. The company exited the business 6 weeks later.

Here's the framework I now use — applied retrospectively to the Sunrun vs ADT Solar decision. Three dimensions, each with a clear verdict depending on your situation.

Dimension 1: Real Cost — What the Solar Kit Savings Calculator Won't Show You

Dollars-per-watt is the most abused metric in the solar industry. That solar kit savings calculator (or any online savings tool) assumes ideal conditions, stable net metering, zero maintenance, and a 25-year horizon with no surprises. My actual usage violated every one of those assumptions.

When I compared Sunrun and ADT Solar in October 2023 (pricing as of Q4 2023 — verify current rates):

Sunrun (lease structure): $0 down, monthly payment equivalent to roughly $2.40/watt on an 8kW system, 2.9% annual escalator, 25-year term. Maintenance included. Brightbox battery available as add-on or buyout.

ADT Solar (direct purchase): $2.85/watt on the same 8kW system, 20-year system warranty, 30% federal tax credit applied at filing. No lease complexity. Higher upfront number on the quote.

On paper, ADT looked $3,400 more expensive. Here's what I didn't calculate — and what I now calculate every time:

TCO breakdown, 25-year horizon:

• Sunrun lease: $0 down, $115/month year one, 2.9% annual escalator. Total payments years 1–25: approximately $49,500 (no early buyout). Asset value at end: $0 (lease, not owned).
• ADT purchase: $22,800 system, minus $6,840 federal credit = $15,960 net. Year 1 savings (based on my actual generation data): ~$2,400. Payback around year 7. System owned outright, 25+ year lifespan.

The spread over 25 years was roughly $22,000 in favor of purchase — but that's not the full picture. A lease doesn't hit your balance sheet with $22,800 in debt. A purchase requires either cash or loan approval. That matters.

My 2023 mistake: I compared the lease payment to the purchase price as if they were competing numbers. They're not. Apples and oranges. I really should stop doing that.

This worked for me, but my situation was a commercial property with predictable cash flow. If you're a homeowner on a tight budget, $0-down lease might be your only viable path — and that's fine. Just know what you're buying: lower upfront commitment in exchange for a higher 25-year total and no residual asset.

The cheapest monthly payment and the lowest total cost are almost never the same number. They're often not even in the same zip code.

Pricing cited is from Q4 2023–Q1 2024. Federal incentives and utility rates change — verify current numbers before signing anything.

Dimension 2: Battery Storage + EV Charging — The Dimension Most Comparisons Ignore

Solar kit savings calculators generally assume 1:1 net metering — every kilowatt you export comes back at retail rate. If your utility changes that policy (and many have), your savings evaporate without a battery.

For my Orlando property, I needed battery storage to support two EV chargers. Here's where Sunrun and ADT Solar diverged sharply:

Sunrun Brightbox: Proprietary battery, integrated with the lease/PPA structure. If you lease, the battery is bundled at roughly $30–40/month add-on depending on capacity. If you own, buyout pricing in 2024 was around $5,000–7,500 depending on configuration. Designed to work with their monitoring app — you see production, consumption, and battery state in one dashboard.

ADT Solar: Third-party battery integration (Generac, Enphase). Because ADT used a direct-ownership model, the battery was a separate line item — roughly $12,000 for 13.5kWh before the federal credit. Good hardware, but the integration story was less seamless. Two apps instead of one.

My 2022 mistake, which directly shaped this comparison: I sized a 12kWh battery for a 14-hour outage scenario based on average consumption — but didn't factor in EV charging as a variable load. When a storm knocked out power for 14 hours in July 2023, the battery drained in 8 hours because both EVs were plugged in at 80% and trying to top off. $2,800 upgrade to 16kWh. Lesson: always size for max continuous load, not average consumption. EV charging turns "average" into "nowhere close."

This is the core flaw in any solar kit savings calculator: it treats electricity use as linear. EV charging is bursty, not linear. Two cars pulling 7kW each at the same moment is a completely different load profile than the calculator assumes.

The unexpected takeaway: For EV owners, the battery sizing question matters more than the panel brand. Sunrun's integrated approach makes battery sizing more forgiving because you're working from a single production-and-storage model. ADT's third-party approach requires you to coordinate two vendors — which is fine if you're detail-oriented and a nightmare if you're not. Note to self: always put the battery sizing calculation in writing before signing.

I have mixed feelings about the integrated-vs-best-of-breed tradeoff. On one hand, a single vendor means single accountability. On the other, third-party batteries give you more hardware choices. I've landed on: integrated if you want simplicity, third-party if you want control. Both are valid. Neither is universally better.

Dimension 3: Service, Installation, and the "What Happens Next" Factor

This is where I have the most scars. My 2021 mistake was assuming installation quality and post-installation support were the same thing. They are not.

Sunrun: Nationwide coverage with local installation partners. When you search "Sunrun solar Orlando reviews" (I did that in October 2023), you'll see a mix — some installation partners are excellent, some are average. Sunrun's lease/PPA structure means maintenance is included for the term, which removes one recurring cost from the equation. The tradeoff: you're locked into their service network, and transferability if you sell the house depends on buyer willingness to assume the lease.

ADT Solar: The pre-exit experience was genuinely good. The sales process was smoother than Sunrun's, and the installation crew was professional. But here's the thing about a service business: "good when things are normal" doesn't tell you much. The January 24, 2024 exit announcement (per ADT's public Q4 2023 earnings call) left thousands of customers mid-installation. My system was completed — eventually — but the timeline stretched from 5 weeks to 19 weeks. Existing warranties are honored, but you're dealing with a reduced service footprint.

Here's the uncomfortable lesson from my ADT experience: when evaluating any solar company, ask what happens if they exit the residential business. It sounds unlikely until it happens to you. Contract language matters more than the sales presentation.

I once had a colleague ask me: "If a truck driver can install a power inverter in a semi truck, why can't you just DIY the solar inverter setup?" That was the beginning of my 2021 disaster. Installing a power inverter in a semi truck is a basic 12V-to-120V conversion — a weekend project if you're handy. Solar is a different animal: DC optimizers, AC interconnection with the grid (which requires permits and utility approval), battery integration, and communications monitoring. I tried to handle part of the balance-of-system on my own in 2021. $4,800 of equipment ended up as e-waste. A lesson learned the hard way.

If you're the kind of person who reads "how to install a power inverter in a semi truck" and thinks "I can do solar myself" — stop. You can't, and it will cost more than the professional installation would have.

Which One I'd Choose Now — and Based on What

Let me be clear: ADT Solar is not a viable option for new residential solar in 2025. They announced their exit in January 2024. If you're comparing them today, the comparison is academic — but the framework still applies to whatever alternatives you're weighing.

If I were making the decision today (January 2025):

Choose a Sunrun-type lease/PPA if:

• You want $0 down and predictable monthly payments
• Battery storage (Brightbox) is part of the decision and you want single-vendor accountability
• You have unpredictable net metering policy in your area and want the utility-risk baked into someone else's model
• You might sell within 5–7 years and can find a buyer willing to assume the lease

Choose direct purchase (the model ADT used, now offered by other installers) if:

• You have a 7+ year horizon in the property
• You want the 25+ year asset and the residual value
• You can handle the higher upfront cost or qualify for financing
• You're comfortable managing a separate battery vendor relationship

My real mistake wasn't picking ADT over Sunrun. It was comparing them on the sticker price before I understood the total cost structure, the battery sizing math, and the "what if they exit" risk. The $11,400 in documented losses came from those three omissions, not from the vendor name on the contract.

I learned these vendor evaluation criteria in 2024. Solar hardware, incentive structures, and utility policies evolve quickly — verify current terms directly with any installer before making a decision.